The Destruction of Gaza: Satellite Measurements of the Economic Cost of War

Abstract

We map and estimate the economic impact of the Israel-Hamas war on the Gaza Strip that began after the October 7th 2023 attacks by Palestinian militant groups. Using data on damage to Gaza’s built environment derived with satellite radar time series data, we estimate the causal impact on Gazan economic activity via nighttime luminosity measurements. After the first year of war, we find that 82% of each square kilometer of the Gaza Strip has been damaged at least once. While the November 2023 ceasefire coincided with a small but significant increase in luminosity, our results show that more than three quarters of Gaza’s economy has been destroyed since the start of the conflict. This work establishes a novel framework for estimating the economic impact caused by conflicts with low latency, at fine spatial resolution, and agnostic of field data sourced from political actors.

Daniele Rinaldo

Economist, Pianist

My research interests are development and environmental economics, currently focusing on the economic impact of endemic diseases in sub-Saharan Africa and natural resource management under regime shifts. Additionally, I work on stochastic processes and probability theory. Also a pianist.