The Destruction of Gaza: Satellite Measurements of the Economic Cost of War

Abstract

We map and estimate the economic impact of the Israel-Hamas war on the Gaza Strip that began after the 7 October 2023 attacks by Palestinian militant groups. We measure the extent of likely damage to Gaza’s built environment derived from satellite radar time series data and estimate the impact caused by the conflict on Gazan economic activity via night-time luminosity measurements. After the first year of war, we find that 82% of each square kilometer of the Gaza Strip had been damaged at least once, and that 67.9% of its built-up area has been destroyed. We estimate an average loss of night-time luminosity due to the conflict of 68.5%, and find that the November 2023 ceasefire coincided with a small but significant increase in luminosity. We translate our night-time luminosity losses into economic indicators; our results show that more than three quarters of Gaza’s economy has been destroyed since the start of the conflict, and we estimate a loss of 2.6 billion USD of household expenditures caused by the damage. Our work establishes a novel framework for estimating the economic impact caused by conflicts with low latency, detailed spatial resolution and which is agnostic with respect to field data sourced from political actors.

Daniele Rinaldo

Economist, Pianist

My research interests are development and environmental economics, currently focusing on the economic impact of endemic diseases in sub-Saharan Africa and natural resource management under regime shifts. Additionally, I work on stochastic processes and probability theory. Also a concert pianist.